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Tags: Market commentary, Volatility, fnm, fre, VIX
11 Jul 6:06pm
Posted by condoroptions
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Today’s selloff is finally registering in index volatilities in a bigger way, and we’re net sellers here.  By no means are we saying that this is the widely looked-for “capitulation day,” nor does it mean that index IV can’t go much, much higher.  We’d be happy to sell some premium at higher levels, too. Look, people are actually getting concerned about this Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac situation.  What if the greybeards in Washington screw something up?  What if ...
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Calendar Options Close Trade Alert: IYR July/August Calendar Spread

Tags: Bonus Trades, Calendar Options, Calendar Spread
10 Jul 7:00pm
Posted by condoroptions
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We’re taking advantage of the fact that IYR’s share price is exactly at the sweet spot for our adjusted calendar spread and closing the position.  We want to scale back our risk prior to expiration week (our EEM position is still open), and at the price below, we’ll have a 6% profit–not too bad for less than three weeks in a volatile market. Here’s the order we’re placing this afternoon: Day limit order Sell to close 2 IYR August 57 put Sell to close 2 IYR A...
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VIX : Fear :: DJIA : The Market

Tags: Market commentary, Volatility, albanian dish-hand, goepfert, VIX
10 Jul 2:15pm
Posted by condoroptions
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A shocking anecdote via Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader: We’re doubtless seeing a lot of indications of apathy and pessimism at the moment, but what we have not seen is panic.  Maybe that’s due to “everyone” looking for the same kinds of signs of capitulation.  I had a subscriber email me an anecdote yesterday about a meal he had on Tuesday.  His waiter told him not to trust the rally because the VIX hasn’t hit 30 yet.  That wasn’t the waiter’s brilli...
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Ominous

Tags: Market commentary
10 Jul 2:48am
Posted by condoroptions
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There was some gossip from floor traders today to the effect that yesterday’s rally had as much to do with short-covering as anything else.  Volume was quite low this morning, but it picked right up during the afternoon selloff.  Crude only fell 41 cents today, so that particular rally excuse wasn’t available.  Financials reaffirmed their doghouse status (XLF and BKX were both down over 5%).  So in all likelihood the story is that if yesterday was about short-covering, today was ab...
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Calendar Options Update: IYR July/August Calendar Spread

Tags: Bonus Trades, Calendar Options, Calendar Spread, Strategy
9 Jul 2:18pm
Posted by condoroptions
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Yesterday we were blindsided by an explosive end-of-day rally in IYR. The gain for the day was a whopping $4.21–that’s more than 3½ times IYR’s  one-day standard deviation (which means the statistical probability of such a huge one-day move is less than 0.02%). Short-covering probably was a big factor in the size and speed of the rally…but regardless of the whys and wherefores, the market erased a week and a half’s losses in a matter of hours. IYR has lost some gr...
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Condor Options is an options trading newsletter service designed to help you generate consistent 10% monthly returns with just 10 minutes a week. We focus on the same strategy that professional options traders use every day: iron condors.

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